报纸会消失吗用英语写200个字

Thedailynewspaper

willnot--not--disappear

Ifyouwanttoseeanewspapermansweat,mentionthedramaticdeclinesinnewspaperpurchasingamongyoungpeople.

Inrecentyearsthenumberofyoungpeoplespendingmoneyonnewspapershasfallenprecipitously,adevelopmentattributabletofactorsincluding24-hourcablenewsandtheinternet.

Seeingasneitherofthoseisgoingaway,thequestionbecomes:Howlowwillreadershipfall?

Lowenoughtokilloffnewspapersasweknowthemwithinagenerationortwoasthenon-readingkidsoftodaybecomethenon-readingadultsoftomorrow?

Morethanonemediaanalystthinksitwill.

Butaleadingstatisticiandisagrees,havingjustcompletedananalysisofconsumeranddemographicdatathatsuggeststhatnewspaperpurchasingwillleveloffatrateshigherthanpreviouslythought.

PeterFrancese,thefounderofAmericanDemographicsmagazine,conductedthestudyofnewspaperbuyinghabitsamongyouthfortheOttawayNewspaperGroup,whichdistributeshisnewspapercolumn.

From1985to1995,thepercentageofhouseholds25-34thatpurchasedanewspaperduringatwo-weekperiodfellfrom63to56percent,adecreaseof11percentoverthedecade.

By2000,thatfigurehadfallento35percent.Withyoungpeople’sattentionbeingsiphonedoffbyinternetandcablenews,purchasingofnewspapersinthatdemoplummeted37.5percentinjustfiveyears’time.

Butwhileit’struethatinrecentyearsyouthpurchasinglevelshavefallendramatically,Francesesays,demographicdatasuggeststhatitwon’thitdisastrouslylowlevels.

“Basedonmobilitydataandotherdataaboutmarriagesandbirths,there’safloortonewspaperpurchasing,probablyaroundonethird,”Francesesays.

“Whenyouputitalltogether,there’stremendousmobilityinthatdemo,butthere’sstillabaseofpeoplethatactinveryconventionalways.”

ArnoldKling,aneconomistandcolumnistforthewebsiteTechCentralStation,predictsthatyoungpeoplewillcontinuetofavorothernewssourcesinthefuture.

“Idon’tthinkthere’smuchofafloorthere,”saysKling.“Atthatpoint,whoknowswhatthetechnologywillbe,butI’mguessingthatnewspaperswillbemoreofanostalgiathingforpeoplewhorememberwhentheNewYorkTimeswastheNewYorkTimes.”

Extrapolationfromtheabovedata,Klingsays,showsthattoday’s25-34yearoldswillspendonlyhalfasmuchonnewspapersintwentyyearsastoday’s50yearoldsdonow.

“Presumablypurchasingby25-34yearoldswillonlygoupfromhereonout,becauseastheygetolderthey’llbuymorepapers,”Klingsays.“Theproblemisthatitwon’tgetuptolevelsofthecurrent50yearolds.”

Thishalvingofnewspaperpurchasing,Klingsays,willforcemanynewspapersoutofbusiness,thoughhepredictstheywillstillbearoundasphilanthropicenterprises.

Franceserespondsthatthisextrapolationisnotvalid,becausepredictionsbasedoncurrentpurchasingofnewspapersby25-34yearoldsfailtotakeintoaccountsignificantdemographicfactorsthatsuggestthenewspaperwillremainpopularinthefuture.

Foronething,Francesesays,researchshowsthatpeopleage25-34arethemostmobiledemographic,andpeopledon’tstartsubscribingtoanewspaperuntilthey’velivedinacommunityforfourorfiveyears.

Anotherkeyreasonfornewspapers’resilience,Francesesuggests,isthatthevastmajorityofnewspapersinthecountryaresmalllocalpapersthatserveauniquefunctioninthecommunity.

“Theydeliversomethingthatpeoplewantanddelivertomosthouseholdsinsmallcommunitiessomethingthatlocaladvertiserswantverymuch,whichisarelativelyinexpensivewaytoreachmosthouseholdsonadailybasis,”Francesesays.

Besides,Francesesays,thenewspaperbusinesscansurvivesignificantdropsinconsumerpurchasingbecauseapproximately80percentofnewspaperrevenuecomesfromadvertising.

Evena50percentdeclineincirculationrevenueoverall,whichFrancesedeemsunlikely,wouldbeonlyatenpercentdeclineintotalrevenue.

Fallinginterestinnewspapersonthepartofyoungpeopleisaseriousproblem,Francesesays,buthepredictsnewspaperswillneverthelesshaveaplaceinthemediaoftheforeseeablefuture.

“Theconceptthata50percentdeclinewilldrivenewspapersoutofbusinessisludicrous,”hesays.